The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) is widely expected to maintain the current Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) at 27.50 per cent as it begins a crucial two-day meeting today in Abuja. This move is seen as part of efforts to consolidate recent gains in reducing inflation and to maintain economic stability.
Financial analysts and economists forecast that the apex bank’s highest policy-making body will adopt a cautious stance, opting to leave key policy rates unchanged. The decision comes on the heels of new data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), which shows that Nigeria’s headline inflation rate dropped to 23.71 per cent in April 2025 — a 52 basis point decline from 24.23 per cent in March.
The month-on-month inflation rate also fell significantly to 1.86 per cent in April from 3.90 per cent in March. The decline was largely driven by a broad-based drop in food prices, as food inflation eased to 21.26 per cent from 21.79 per cent the previous month.
Core inflation, which excludes volatile items like food and energy, dropped even more sharply, falling to 23.39 per cent in April from 24.43 per cent in March — a 105 basis point decrease. On a month-on-month basis, core inflation saw an even steeper drop of 239 basis points to 1.34 per cent.
Analysts at Financial Derivatives Company, Cordros Capital, Afrinvest West Africa, and Arthur Steven Asset Management, among others, believe the MPC will hold the MPR and all other parameters constant to strengthen inflationary stability and preserve investor confidence in the naira.
“In our view, the MPC is likely to take into account elevated global uncertainties and their implications for naira stability,” analysts at Cordros Capital said in a pre-meeting note. “Against this backdrop, we expect the MPC to adopt a cautious stance, leaving the Monetary Policy Rate unchanged, alongside retaining all other policy parameters, in a bid to anchor inflation expectations and maintain the naira’s attractiveness.”
They also warned that inflation risks remain tilted to the upside, especially amid the gradual depreciation of the naira.
However, some analysts at Futureview believe the CBN may consider a slight rate cut if the inflationary trend continues to improve, suggesting a more flexible policy approach in the near term.
The MPC, chaired by the CBN Governor, provides strategic monetary direction for the economy, with its decisions influencing everything from bank lending rates to inflation expectations and currency performance.
The meeting’s outcome will be closely monitored by investors, policy makers, and financial institutions seeking clarity on the apex bank’s monetary policy direction in light of both local and global economic pressures.
