The United States’ impending shift toward energy independence under former President Donald Trump’s planned executive order and declaration of a national energy emergency could significantly impact Nigeria’s crude oil exports. This development comes as oil prices, including Nigeria’s Bonny Light, dropped to $80 per barrel from $83, signaling global market uncertainty.
Historically, the U.S. has been a major importer of Nigerian crude oil. However, advancements in shale oil production, strategic government policies, and a push for energy self-sufficiency have drastically reduced American imports. Despite this decline, U.S. imports from Nigeria amounted to $4.73 billion in 2023. Experts warn that Trump’s policies could further diminish these figures.
Dr. Muda Yusuf, CEO of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), explained the potential ripple effects. “Increased U.S. oil and gas production will raise global supply, likely driving down prices,” he said. “Lower prices will reduce Nigeria’s oil revenue but could benefit businesses with reduced energy costs.”
Yusuf added that if Trump mediates the Russia-Ukraine conflict, lifting sanctions on Russian oil could increase global production and further suppress prices. “It’s a double-edged sword. Lower prices favor businesses but penalize the government. Higher prices do the opposite,” he concluded.
Port Harcourt-based energy analyst Dr. Bala Zakka suggested Trump’s policies could encourage Nigeria to expand its refining capabilities. “Major importers indirectly encourage our economy’s over-reliance on crude exports. Reduced U.S. imports could push Nigeria to refine and add value domestically,” Zakka argued.
The National President of the Oil and Gas Service Providers Association of Nigeria (OGSPAN) echoed this sentiment, urging Nigeria to reduce its dependency on oil and diversify its economy.
Amid these challenges, the Petroleum Products Retail Outlets Owners Association of Nigeria (PETROAN) has reassured consumers of fuel availability during the festive season. The group highlighted the Dangote Refinery’s 650,000 barrels per day capacity and collaboration with NNPC’s Port Harcourt refinery as critical to averting shortages.
In a statement, PETROAN National Public Relations Officer Dr. Joseph Obele emphasized that these efforts would ensure a seamless travel experience for Nigerians. PETROAN also celebrated its strategic partnership with Dangote Refinery, which aims to stabilize fuel distribution across the country.
As Trump’s energy policies loom, Nigeria faces a pivotal moment to recalibrate its oil-dependent economy and embrace sustainable strategies for growth.
